Unlock Pro Features

You need a paid subscription to view that page.

View Pricing
Subscription
Open Pricing in New Tab
BWA Logo BWA
Pricing
Log In Sign Up
Demo Dashboard Sample Newsletter
Help Center Substack Blog
Substack Newsletter X (Twitter) Contact Us
BWA Logo BWA
  • Pricing
Log In Sign Up

Tools

  • Demo Dashboard
  • Sample Newsletter

Resources

  • Help Center
  • Substack Blog

Connect

  • Substack Newsletter
  • X (Twitter)
  • Contact Us

Signing in...

BWA Market Newsletter

2026-04-21

The market is navigating a stormy volatility regime on April 21, with investors exercising caution. Core performance is mixed, as DIA eked out a 0.02% gain, while SPY slipped 0.20%, NDAQ dropped 0.94%, and IWM bucked the trend with a 0.57% increase. IWM's outperformance makes it the leader of the day, while NDAQ's decline relegates it to the laggard spot. Trend participation remains high at 92.6%, but the daily positive rate is relatively low at 33.3%, suggesting some underlying weakness. With a leadership momentum regime still in place, we're keeping a close eye on NDAQ, which is on our watchlist due to a leadership risk setup that could potentially undermine the current momentum dynamic. As the market continues to navigate choppy waters, we remain vigilant about potential downside risks. The watchlist centers on NDAQ under the Leadership Risk Setup thesis.
{'DIA': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Highest Volatility', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': 'Highest Volatility (1.00)', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'EEM': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Highest Volatility', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': 'Highest Volatility (1.00)', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'EFA': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Strongest momentum vs peers', 'value': 1.0087890658566827, 'desc': 'Trend is fading', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Most extended trends vs peers', 'value': 1.291097157775974, 'desc': 'Trend is fading', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 0.973392994009631, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'HYG': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Highest Volatility', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': 'Highest Volatility (1.00)', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'IEF': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.1342782605308655, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Tightest Compression', 'value': 0.1342782605308655, 'desc': 'Tightest Compression (0.13)', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'IWM': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Strongest momentum vs peers', 'value': 1.0199857809970183, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'LQD': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Waking Up', 'value': 0.3875868131538564, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'MTUM': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Sharpest momentum fade', 'value': -1.0122253425233607, 'desc': 'Trend is fading', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Fastest Expansion', 'value': 19.024181072200008, 'desc': 'Fastest Expansion (19.02)', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'NDAQ': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Fastest momentum build', 'value': 1.4900619244167388, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Waking Up', 'value': 0.0908221735889647, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'QQQ': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Fastest Expansion', 'value': 49.08544129500001, 'desc': 'Fastest Expansion (49.09)', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'QUAL': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'RSP': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 0.9375047005647902, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'SPY': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Fastest Expansion', 'value': 39.42556176419998, 'desc': 'Fastest Expansion (39.43)', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'TLT': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Tightest Compression', 'value': 0.0, 'desc': 'Tightest Compression (0.00)', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'USMV': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Fastest momentum build', 'value': 1.2976848603259796, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.3162149015946218, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'VLUE': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'XLB': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Cooling Off', 'value': 0.5099219213603109, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'event', 'subtype': 'volatility_transition', 'label': 'Shifted to Cooling Off', 'value': 0.5099219213603109, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'XLC': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Fastest momentum build', 'value': 2.801522634753024, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 0.9929481261055852, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'XLE': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'XLF': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'XLI': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 0.9421381450405422, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'XLK': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Strongest momentum vs peers', 'value': 1.3562213205435687, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Most extended trends vs peers', 'value': 1.7183779690042553, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'XLP': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.009568826570380199, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Tightest Compression', 'value': 0.009568826570380199, 'desc': 'Tightest Compression (0.01)', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'XLRE': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Most extended trends vs peers', 'value': 1.4642996906512937, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Sharpest momentum fade', 'value': -1.4470549187278623, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'XLU': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Sharpest momentum fade', 'value': -2.592939463212549, 'desc': 'Trend is fading', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.20814661629434764, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'XLV': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.14577467971931948, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}], 'XLY': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-04-20'}]}
QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT: 1. MARKET STRUCTURE (Trend Strength 0-100): - DIA [Leadership, 45] - EEM [Leadership, 14] - EFA [Weakness, 12] - HYG [Weakness, 8] - IEF [Weakness, 8] - IWM [Leadership, 39] - MTUM [Leadership, 35] - NDAQ [Weakness, 14] vs QQQ [Leadership, 100/100] -> INTERNAL STRENGTH (+86pts on QQQ) - QUAL [Leadership, 26] - SPY [Leadership, 83] vs RSP [Leadership, 22/100] -> INTERNAL WEAKNESS (-61pts on RSP) 2. MARKET INTERNALS (Breadth): - Trend Participation (>SMA20): 92.6% - Net Breadth Score: 51.9% - Regime State: Expanding Volatility - Extremes: 70.4% Overbought / 3.7% Oversold 3. CROSS-ASSET CORRELATIONS: - SPY Slope: 1.734 | VIXY Slope: 0.000 - Signal: Normal. 4. NEWSWIRE CONTEXT (RSS/Vector DB): No external news data provided. 5. SECTOR BREADTH: - Net Breadth Score: 2 (Positive=Bullish, Negative=Bearish) - Leaders (Strong Trend): DIA (45), IWM (39), MTUM (35), QUAL (26), EEM (14) - Laggards (Weak Trend): EFA (12), HYG (8), IEF (8) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INPUTS: - Date: 2026-04-21 - Day Adjective: Leadership Risk Setup - Volatility Regime: Stormy - Momentum Regime: Leadership - Core Daily Performance: DIA +0.02%, SPY -0.20%, NDAQ -0.94%, IWM +0.57% - Focused Tape Performance: DIA +0.02%, SPY -0.20%, NDAQ -0.94%, IWM +0.57%, QUAL -0.16%, EEM -0.72%, EFA -0.39%, HYG -0.09%, IEF -0.09%, MTUM -0.33% - Focus Scores (selection): DIA=102 (core +100, momentum +1, volatility +1); SPY=102 (core +100, momentum +1, volatility +1); NDAQ=101 (core +100, momentum +1); IWM=102 (core +100, momentum +1, volatility +1); QUAL=3 (momentum +1, volatility +1, volume-profile +1); EEM=2 (momentum +1, volatility +1); EFA=2 (momentum +1, volatility +1); HYG=2 (momentum +1, volatility +1); IEF=2 (momentum +1, volatility +1); MTUM=2 (momentum +1, volatility +1) - Leader (All ETFs): IWM - Laggard (All ETFs): NDAQ - Trend Participation (>SMA20): 92.6% - Daily Positive (% green today): 33.3% - Coiled Springs: IEF - Watchlist: NDAQ - Volume Signals: Filter: within 1.0% of Pivot/R1/R2/S1/S2 OR Coiled/Waking ticker with imbalanced profile. IEF: Price 95.84, near S1; profile balanced (balanced), POC 95.50, Value Area 94.82-95.50, OBV -73929419, CMF -0.06, MFI 56.75, VWAP14 95.41 QUAL: Price 206.59, near Pivot; profile b_shaped (imbalanced), POC 192.89, Value Area 187.50-195.05, OBV 9934307, CMF 0.10, MFI 75.49, VWAP14 196.87 HYG: Price 80.58, near S1; profile balanced (balanced), POC 79.39, Value Area 78.73-80.49, OBV -457032361, CMF 0.13, MFI 56.55, VWAP14 79.96 EFA: Price 103.91, near S1; profile balanced (balanced), POC 96.71, Value Area 94.97-103.68, OBV 21106173, CMF 0.15, MFI 65.08, VWAP14 100.46 DIA: Price 494.33, near Pivot; profile balanced (balanced), POC 460.93, Value Area 453.94-493.55, OBV 10980557, CMF 0.05, MFI 74.68, VWAP14 476.42 NDAQ: Price 87.78, near S1; profile balanced (balanced), POC 88.20, Value Area 83.40-88.64, OBV -6119638, CMF -0.09, MFI 70.66, VWAP14 86.49 SPY: Price 708.72, near Pivot; profile balanced (balanced), POC 656.29, Value Area 635.51-710.31, OBV -298008392, CMF 0.13, MFI 81.24, VWAP14 673.71 EEM: Price 63.18, near S1; profile balanced (balanced), POC 57.13, Value Area 55.17-63.98, OBV 248842448, CMF 0.13, MFI 75.76, VWAP14 59.63 MTUM: Price 273.56, near Pivot; profile balanced (balanced), POC 237.44, Value Area 232.86-269.50, OBV 8633917, CMF 0.23, MFI 89.01, VWAP14 256.03 IWM: Price 277.35, near R1; profile balanced (balanced), POC 249.41, Value Area 245.51-268.90, OBV 408248731, CMF 0.08, MFI 93.70, VWAP14 259.73 - Pivot Levels: IEF: Pivot 95.94, R1 96.04, R2 96.15, S1 95.83, S2 95.72 QUAL: Pivot 206.52, R1 207.84, R2 208.75, S1 205.61, S2 204.29 HYG: Pivot 80.66, R1 80.75, R2 80.86, S1 80.55, S2 80.46 EFA: Pivot 104.55, R1 104.90, R2 105.47, S1 103.98, S2 103.63 DIA: Pivot 493.87, R1 497.39, R2 500.55, S1 490.71, S2 487.19 NDAQ: Pivot 88.80, R1 89.54, R2 90.48, S1 87.86, S2 87.12 SPY: Pivot 709.43, R1 713.10, R2 716.06, S1 706.47, S2 702.80 EEM: Pivot 63.74, R1 64.12, R2 64.59, S1 63.27, S2 62.89 MTUM: Pivot 274.09, R1 275.60, R2 276.75, S1 272.94, S2 271.43 IWM: Pivot 275.51, R1 277.90, R2 280.02, S1 273.39, S2 270.99 - VWAP Probability: IEF: VWAP probability: insufficient data. QUAL: VWAP probability: insufficient data. HYG: VWAP probability: insufficient data. EFA: VWAP probability: insufficient data. DIA: VWAP probability: insufficient data. NDAQ: VWAP probability: insufficient data. SPY: VWAP probability: insufficient data. EEM: VWAP probability: insufficient data. MTUM: VWAP probability: insufficient data. IWM: VWAP probability: insufficient data. 6. VOLATILITY WATCHLIST: - Coiled (Compression/Breakout Risk): IEF - Waking Up (Expanding Volatility): None 7. STATISTICAL OUTLIERS (>2 StdDev): None


Select Asset:

Long Short
DIA Bias: Long (69.7% confidence)
Support: 490.71 | Resistance: 497.39 | POC: 460.93
Long Short
SPY Bias: Long (82.1% confidence)
Support: 706.47 | Resistance: 713.10 | POC: 656.29
Long Short
NDAQ Bias: Long (8.5% confidence)
Support: 87.86 | Resistance: 89.54 | POC: 88.20
Long Short
IWM Bias: Long (82.0% confidence)
Support: 273.39 | Resistance: 277.90 | POC: 249.41
Long Short
QUAL Bias: Long (56.8% confidence)
Support: 205.61 | Resistance: 207.84 | POC: 192.89
Long Short
EEM Bias: Long (78.4% confidence)
Support: 63.27 | Resistance: 64.12 | POC: 57.13
Long Short
EFA Bias: Long (76.2% confidence)
Support: 103.98 | Resistance: 104.90 | POC: 96.71
Long Short
HYG Bias: Long (52.1% confidence)
Support: 80.55 | Resistance: 80.75 | POC: 79.39
Long Short
IEF Bias: Long (10.1% confidence)
Support: 95.83 | Resistance: 96.04 | POC: 95.50
Long Short
MTUM Bias: Long (90.0% confidence)
Support: 272.94 | Resistance: 275.60 | POC: 237.44
Advanced


Momentum Map (Advanced Leadership Model)

How to read: The x-axis measures trend stretch adjusted for volatility. The y-axis measures momentum quality combining rate-of-change and RSI deviation. Use the slider to explore rotation over time.
Upper-right = Leadership, Lower-left = Weakness.


Volatility Quadrant Map (BB Width vs 5-Day Change)

How to read: Cycle moves clockwise: Coiled (Squeeze) → Waking (Breakout) → Stormy (Expansion) → Cooling (Mean Reversion).

Signal History

Loading latest intelligence...

Disclaimer: I am a former trader and SWE. I monitor market data for fun. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always DYOR (do your own research)

BWA logo

© 2026 BWA.ai. All rights reserved.

  • Help Center
  • Pricing
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Service